Episode 846: Nihilistic Trivia Time
Date March 23, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about a LaRoche-related White Sox conspiracy and update Ryan Webb’s save outlook, then answer emails about Ryan Howard, Trout vs. Goldschmidt, a terrible trivia question, and more. Topics * Ryan Howard's 2017 contract option * Post signing physicals * 2009 draft mistakes * Players with home runs before age 20 and after age 40 * Time traveling general managers Intro Underground TV sound clip David Gilmour, "You Know I'm Right" Outro Utopia, "Everybody Else is Wrong" Banter * Chicago White Sox, Adam LaRoche, and Drake LaRoche clubhouse controversy * Because of injuries on the Tampa Bay Rays, Ryan Webb has a slightly increased chance of earning a save this season. Email Questions * Dan (New Jersey): "Ryan Howard has a $23 million team option for 2017 with a $10 million buyout. What would have to happen for the Phillies to pick up that option?" * Eric: "What would happen if a qualifying offer free agent accepted the offer but failed his physical?" * Ryan: "Listening to Episode 840 caused me to look at the 2009 draft class. It was there that I saw that Paul Goldschmidt went in the 8th round (#246 overall). What do you guys think is the more egregious error: 21 teams passing on Mike Trout in round one, including the Nationals and Diamondbacks twice each, or all 30 teams passing on Paul Goldschmidt 7+ times? My first instinct would be to say Trout but to think that 245 players got selected before Goldschmidt who is probably a top 10 player in the league has me doubting that decision." * Kent: "I have one baseball question that has stumped me since hearing it at ballgame several years ago while attending a national SABR conference. Name the three players who hit at least one home run before the age of 20 and after the age of 40. The answer given was Ty Cobb, Rusty Staub, and Phil Cavarretta. While we came up with Cobb and Staub fairly quickly, no one in our group came up with Cavarretta but we were told absolutely that he was the only other player to accomplish the feat. Well thanks to the Baseball Reference Play Index which I do subscribe to it seems Phil Cavarretta hit his last home run at age 37 so he can't be the third year. One year later the question came up again and the same person insisted that the third guy was Phil Cavarretta so I assumed I heard the name wrong and/or did not use the Play Index correctly. At this point though I'm pretty sure it isn't Phil Cavarretta. Can you do this? It would be great if one of you might be able to definitively answer the question." * Stephen: "You wake up tomorrow morning wearing a ridiculous mustache. After considerable confusion you locate a calendar and realize that it is 1976. The year before Bill James publishes his first abstract. Through some weird quirk of time travel you've ended up as the general manager of a middle of the pack MLB team in this alternate timeline. You have retained all your knowledge of modern baseball stats and analytics but lost any memories of specific players. For example you would still know how to calcuate a pitcher's FIP and know what that means but you wouldn't know that 1978 20th round pick Ryne Sandberg will turn into a Hall of Famer. With this advantage how long are you able to avoid the wobbly chair and how many, if any, championships does your team win before you are finally fired?" * Chris: "About 20 years ago a frequent poster on a popular baseball news group insisted he'd be a better general manager than most of the idiots already on the job but I thought he was underestimating the importance of management and people skills which from his posts he seemed to lack. In any case I've always wondered if there wasn't a tiny kernel of truth to his idea. Was there ever a time that a statistically informed baseball fan with no industry experience from any era could have made a better than average general manager? Could I, armed only with WAR, have led the 1961 Phillies to the pennant?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to answer Kent's question. * There are six players who have homered before 20 and after 40 including Gary Sheffield, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. * Phil Cavarretta's career ended when he was 38 years old. Notes * Ben is skeptical the Phillies would pick up Howard's contract option 2017 even if he hits hit 90th percentile PECOTA projection in 2016. * An Assistant GM Ben spoke to about Eric's question said that once a player accepts he is a signed player. However players complete end of season physicals so the team would already know about any health issues. * Phil Cavarretta owned a children's amusement park while also playing baseball. * Ben and Sam answered a similar question about time traveling front offices in Episode 255. Time traveling players were discussed in Episode 1182. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 846: Nihilistic Trivia Time Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes